Heads You Win; Tails You Don’t Lose

Published in Forbes.com  August 20, 2020

So your team is contemplating a big acquisition that would grow your headcount by 50%, or perhaps an investment in a dynamic marketing initiative designed to double sales.

How do you pull the trigger with such a big outcome — and a big price tag — on the line? When do you know it’s the right move to make or a colossal mistake to avoid?

Companies face decisions like this regularly, especially in today’s business climate. The right move sets you up for the next few years, and a poor decision could sink the entire company.

Are you ready to make this decision, and if so, what mental model or decision-making mechanism would you employ?

Consider the mental model “heads we win, and tails we don’t lose” for just such decisions.

Start With 'Not Losing' (Tails)

We’re all familiar with the notion of a two-headed coin. Mostly, these are used in scams or trickery of some sort.

That’s not your bag.

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